Lao PDR Energy Outlook 2020
The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) has been assisting the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), Lao PDR to produce Lao PDR Energy Statistics since 2017 with the analysis of the historical energy demand and supply situation. In response to MEM’s request to ERIA to provide an analysis of the future energy demand supply situation of Lao PDR, ERIA dispatched a technical team to support the Ministry in the development of the Lao PDR Energy Outlook 2019. The Energy Outlook adopts an econometric approach to estimating future energy demand in Lao PDR. The key results show that Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario increased at an average 4.7% per year from 2015 to 2040 under an annual GDP growth rate assumption of 6.2%. The industry sector grew fastest (8.3%), followed by the transport sector (6%), and others (1.3%). The forecast is for electricity to grow fastest at 8.1%, followed by coal at 7.7%, and oil at 6.1%. Electricity generation is expected to increase to 70 TWh by 2040 from 17 TWh in 2015, or at an average growth rate of 5.8% per year. Around 53% of the electricity generated will be exported to Thailand. The Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) is forecast to reach 13 Mtoe in 2040, an increase of 4.4% on average per year from 2015. As demand for energy grows, carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in the BAU scenario is forecast to increase to four times the 2015 level by 2040 due to an increase in coal consumption for industry and power generation. Thus, energy policy measures such as those aimed at increasing energy efficiency in all sectors and the policy of increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix will be very important for Lao PDR to enable it to cope with rising energy demand and allowing it to reduce CO2 emission.