Jakarta, 19 February 2025: ERIA and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) co-organised a 2-day working group meeting on 18–19 February 2025 at ERIA’s office in Jakarta. Themed ’Preparation of Energy Outlook and Analysis of Energy-Saving Potential in the East Asia Region,’ the meeting was led by Shigeru Kimura, Senior Policy Fellow for Energy Affairs at ERIA, and attended by ASEAN working group members and representatives from five Asia-Pacific OECD countries, plus China and India, both in-person and online.

Prof. Kimura opened the meeting by thanking country representatives for their efforts and outlining the agenda. He emphasised the importance of each country’s Low-Carbon Energy Transition (LCET) scenario presentation and provided an overview of ERIA’s evolving energy outlook. Initially focused on efficiency and energy savings, the outlook now incorporates climate change considerations, particularly CO2 emission constraints. Prof. Kimura also elaborated on ERIA’s top-down econometric approach to energy outlook modeling, while identifying challenges such as data unavailability and outdated records from some member countries, which impact modeling accuracy.

The next session focused on finalising the East Asia Summit (EAS) Energy Outlook for ASEAN countries, with country representatives presenting their findings. ASEAN participants included:

• Brunei Darussalam: Siti Nurul Asyiqin Binti Abdul Khalid, Nuraqilah Binti Dahlan (Department of Energy, Prime Minister’s Office)
• Cambodia: Heang Theangseng (Ministry of Mines and Energy)
• Indonesia: Suharyati Nugroho (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources)
• ASEAN Energy Expert: Cecilya Malik
• Lao PDR: Davanhny Xaneth (Ministry of Energy and Mines)
• Malaysia: Zaharin Zulkifli (Energy Commission (ST))
• Myanmar: Swe Swe Than (Ministry of Energy)
• Philippines: Michael Leabres (Department of Energy)
• Singapore: Dr Zhong Sheng (National University of Singapore (NUS))
• Viet Nam: Nguyen Minh Bao

Dr Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Energy Economist at ERIA, concluded the ASEAN Energy Outlook discussion by stating that achieving the LCET scenario target requires a 40% reduction in total final energy consumption, with transport and industry as primary contributors. He also highlighted electrification as a crucial strategy, contrasting it with business-as-usual (BAU) projections.

To finalise summary tables and country reports, Cecilya Malik (ASEAN Energy Expert) will collaborate with Siti Nurul Asyiqin Binti Abdul Khalid and Nuraqilah Binti Dahlan from Brunei, along with Michael Leabres from the Philippines. Other ASEAN representatives will ensure consistency in their respective reports.

The discussion continued with presentations from five Asia-Pacific OECD countries, plus China and India:

• Australia: Shamim Ahmad (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water)
• China: Dr Rong-Gang Cong (Beijing Institute of Technology)
• India: Dr Atul Kumar (Jawaharlal Nehru University)
• Japan: Park Junyoung (Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)
• New Zealand: Hien Dang (Energy Consultant)
• Republic of Korea: Dr Kyung-Jin Boo (Seoul National University)
• United States: Clara Gillispie (National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR))

ERIA requested these seven members to align their summary tables with their country reports. Ryan Wiratama Bhaskara (Research Associate, ERIA) concluded the session on behalf of Dr Han Phoumin (Senior Energy Economist, ERIA).

Following the presentations, Prof. Kimura led a discussion on the continuation of the EAS Energy Outlook, seeking feedback from EAS working group members on future improvements. Kentaro Noma (Programme Manager, Asia Zero Emission (AZE) Center) introduced EAS members to AZE Center activities, explaining how ERIA’s Energy Outlook can complement the Carbon Neutral Scenario Analysis of AZE Center. He emphasised that there is no singular ‘right or wrong’ approach to energy modeling.

Michael Petalio, Energy Modeler from the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), presented the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook, allowing working group members to compare methodologies and findings. This exchange prompted discussions on potential collaboration between ERIA and ACE.

The working group reaffirmed the importance of continuing EAS energy outlook modeling and strengthening collaboration between the EAS and ACE outlooks, with Noma leading further discussions. Prof. Kimura concluded the meeting by providing a historical perspective on the EAS Energy Outlook and thanking participants for their valuable contributions.