Project Overview

This study aims to develop a diffusion model for electric vehicles (EVs), specifically electric cars, in ASEAN Member States (AMS). The model will consider policy measures implemented by AMS governments regarding EV adoption as well as the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of each AMS.

The study has two objectives:

• To understand the mechanisms of EV diffusion across AMS by examining EV-related policy measures and the specific socioeconomic and demographic conditions of each AMS. This will involve literature review and statistical analysis using the vehicle data from five AMS — Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Viet Nam, and Lao PDR — sourced from the ongoing FY2024 project 'ASEAN Alternative Vehicle Technology Portal'. Additional information related to technological, socio-economic, and demographic aspects will be drawn from various existing ERIA studies, especially those within the framework of the 'Masterplan for the Next-Generation Vehicle Industry' study.
• To develop a diffusion model tailored to the ASEAN context based on the findings of the analysis. A literature review of existing diffusion models will inform the model development, while model validation and calibration will be carried out through econometric analysis.