Modelling the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles in ASEAN and the United States

This paper examines the diffusion of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in ASEAN and the United States through a comparative analysis of adoption trajectories, key determinants, and policy implications in two contrasting regional contexts. Using logistic S-curve diffusion models, complemented by panel and country-level regression analyses, the study characterises the pace and scale of BEV market development over the periods 2010–2024 for ASEAN and 2016–2022 for the United States. The findings identify public charging infrastructure as the most consistent driver of BEV adoption across both regions. However, while charging infrastructure is essential to accelerating market uptake, it does not by itself determine the long-term pace of diffusion. The analysis underscores the importance of context-specific, sequenced policy approaches tailored to countries' stages of market development and highlights the limitations of relying on snapshot adoption metrics to benchmark EV progress across jurisdictions at different stages of the transition.