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Viet Nam 2045: Development Issues and Challenges

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Viet Nam’s impressive economic growth has been driven by a socialist-oriented market economy often recognised as the 'Viet Nam model.’ This model, in combination with an open-door policy promoting economic integration with regional and global partners, has been pivotal in shaping the country’s advancement. Notably, Japan’s Official Development Assistance has played a central role in improving infrastructure to attract foreign direct investment, thereby reinforcing the expansion of exports.

With the goal of achieving high-income status by 2045, Viet Nam must navigate a trajectory of consistent growth, aiming to surpass an annual growth rate of 5.4% leading up to 2045. In this pursuit, this publication highlights seven critical sectors poised to guide this growth. Amongst them, the digital business sector emerges as supremely significant. The wave of digital transformation acts as a pervasive catalyst for innovation, a cornerstone in Viet Nam's endeavour to break free from the middle-income trap.

In the drive towards sustainable industrialisation, Viet Nam faces two challenges: firstly, the necessity of combating climate change and embracing green transformation – this involves ensuring a robust energy supply while adhering to a carbon-neutral framework. Secondly, fostering social inclusion to nurture a burgeoning middle class is equally vital.

As we commemorate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Viet Nam and Japan, this publication delves deep into the economic synergy between the two nations. With a primary focus on digital transformation and green transition, it illuminates the dynamic cooperation between Viet Nam and Japan that paves the way for a promising future.

Full Report

Viet Nam 2045: Development Issues and Challenges

Vietnamese version (full Report)


Title page

Foreword and Acknowledgements

List of Project Members

Executive Summary

Part I: Historical View and Development Model

Chapter 1: 2045 in the Course of an Independent Viet Nam

Motoo Furuta

Chapter 2: Viet Nam's Foreign Policy and Japan-Viet Nam Relations since the Start of Doi Moi

Masaya Shiraishi

Chapter 3:The Role of Japanese Official Development Assistance in Viet Nam’s Socio-economic Development

Motonori Tsuno

Chapter 4: Viet Nam: Transition to a Socialist-Oriented Market Economy

Vo Tri Thanh

Chapter 5: Foreign Direct Investment and the Industrialisation of Viet Nam

Ryo Ikebe

Chapter 6: Viet Nam's Conditions for Sustained Growth: How to Escape from the Middle-Income Trap?

Tran Van Tho

Chapter 7: Economic Integration in East Asia and Viet Nam

Nguyen Anh Duong and Ha Thi Thanh Doan

Part II: Industries as the Driving Force for Growth

Chapter 8: New Wave of Digital Transformation, Industry 4.0 and Innovation

Nguyen Anh Duong and Fukunari Kimura

Chapter 9: Viet Nam 2045: Automobile Industry

Seio Nakajima, Hideo Kobayashi, and Yasushi Ueki

Chapter 10:Electronics as a Driving Force for Viet Nam's Economic Development

Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy

Chapter 11: Digital Transformation-related Businesses

Nguyen Anh Duong

Chapter 12: Viet Nam's Textile and Garment Industry in the Global Value Chain

Kenta Goto

Chapter 13: Consolidation of the Supporting Industries under International Economic Integration

Mai Fujita

Chapter 14: New Aspects of Agricultural Development in Viet Nam

Shozo Sakata

Part III: Sustainability and Social Issues

Chapter 15: Sustainable Energy Supply

Shigeru Kimura, Alloysius Joko Purwanto, and Han Phoumin

Chapter 16: Advancing Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilient Growth

Venkatachalam Anbumozhi and Lai Van Manh

Chapter 17: Circular Economy in Viet Nam

Lai Van Manh and Pham Anh Huyen

Chapter 18: Challenges for Inclusive Growth

Emi Kojin

Chapter 19: Social Issues in Viet Nam's Ageing Society

Yuka Minagawa, Nguyen Cong Vu, Yoichi Hiruma, and Yasuhiko Saito

PART IV Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

Chapter 20: Developing a New Approach to Japan–Viet Nam Industrial Cooperation

Fusanori Iwasaki, Keita Oikawa, and Yasuhiro Yamada

Chapter 21: Conclusion: Policy Recommendations for Achieving High-Income Status by 2045

Keita Oikawa

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