We use cookies on this website to give you a better user experience. By continuing to browse the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn more

Lao PDR Energy Outlook 2020

Lao PDR Energy Outlook 2020
Date:
3 February 2020
Category:
Lao PDR, Energy
Authors:
Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines, ERIA
Tags:
Electricity, Energy, Lao PDR, Regulation and Governance, Renewable Energy

Print Article:

The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) has been assisting the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), Lao PDR to produce Lao PDR Energy Statistics since 2017 with the analysis of the historical energy demand and supply situation. In response to MEM’s request to ERIA to provide an analysis of the future energy demand supply situation of Lao PDR, ERIA dispatched a technical team to support the Ministry in the development of the Lao PDR Energy Outlook 2019. The Energy Outlook adopts an econometric approach to estimating future energy demand in Lao PDR. The key results show that Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario increased at an average 4.7% per year from 2015 to 2040 under an annual GDP growth rate assumption of 6.2%. The industry sector grew fastest (8.3%), followed by the transport sector (6%), and others (1.3%). The forecast is for electricity to grow fastest at 8.1%, followed by coal at 7.7%, and oil at 6.1%. Electricity generation is expected to increase to 70 TWh by 2040 from 17 TWh in 2015, or at an average growth rate of 5.8% per year. Around 53% of the electricity generated will be exported to Thailand. The Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) is forecast to reach 13 Mtoe in 2040, an increase of 4.4% on average per year from 2015. As demand for energy grows, carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in the BAU scenario is forecast to increase to four times the 2015 level by 2040 due to an increase in coal consumption for industry and power generation. Thus, energy policy measures such as those aimed at increasing energy efficiency in all sectors and the policy of increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix will be very important for Lao PDR to enable it to cope with rising energy demand and allowing it to reduce CO2 emission.

Full Report

Lao PDR Energy Outlook 2020

Contents

Title Page

Foreword

Acknowledgements

Project Contributors

Contents

List of Figures and Tables

Executive Summary

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Methodology

Chapter 3. Data

Chapter 4. Estimation of Energy Demand Formulas

Chapter 5. Model Assumptions

Chapter 6. Assessment of Future Simulation Results

Chapter 7. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

Search ERIA.org

Latest Multimedia

Indonesia's ASEAN Chairmanship 2023 High-Level Policy Dialogue: ASEAN Digital Community 2045

ERIA Knowledge Lab Discusses Scaling Up Innovation and Digital Technology Ecosystem

Is ASEAN Ready for Electric Vehicles? | ASEAN Insights Podcast

Related Articles

22 February 2019
Editor(s)/Author(s): Shigeru Kimura, Han Phoumin
The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia–East Asia Summit (ERIA–EAS) Energy Outlook was updated in 2017–2018[...]
energy, Lao PDR
2 July 2018
Editor(s)/Author(s): Ministry of Energy Mines Lao PDR, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
Insufficient information and inadequate capacity to carry out comprehensive energy planning are identified as the main contributing factors to the[...]