Research Project Reports

Sea Lane Security of Oil and Liquefied Natural Gas in the East Asia Summit Region

Edited by Shigeru Kimura, Tetsuo Morikawa, Siddharth Singh

ERIA Research Project Report 2015-14

Posted: November 2016

Abstract

With robust demand - yet modest supply growth - of energy in the region, the East Asia Summit (EAS) area is expected to rely more on imported oil and natural gas. However, without an international pipeline infrastructure, the region imports these products through sea transport. Sea lane security of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is then vitally important to ensure energy supply in the region. This study firstly forecasts future oil and LNG import into the Asia-Pacific region in order to assess the congestion in the Hormuz and Malacca/Singapore straits. Secondly, the study identifies various risks to sea lane security in terms of key background elements (congestion, geography, geopolitics, climate change, poverty, and law and order) and trigger events (piracy, terrorism, regional conflicts, accidents, and extreme weather events). Trigger events in turn impact the energy security of the region in the form of supply disruptions, price volatility of traded goods, financial risks to the industry including increased insurance premium, and physical risks to human life. Finally, the study introduces countermeasures adopted by countries, such as Indonesia and Thailand, to mitigate various risks.


Full Report


RPR-2015-14

Contents


Cover

Preface

Acknowledgements

List Project Members

Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Abbreviations

Executive Summary

Chapter 1. Oil and LNG Imports and Trade Flow Outlook

Chapter 2. Risk Analysis on Sea Lane Security of Oil and LNG

Chapter 3. Risk Mitigation Measures and Strategies

Chapter 4. Sea lane Security in the Selected EAS countries

References

Appendix

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