Research Project Reports

Scenario Analysis of Energy Security in the East Asia Summit Region

By Ichiro Kutani, Mitsuru Motokura and Han Phoumin

ERIA Research Project Report 2014-35

Posted: November 2015


This energy security study uses three scenarios as key factors affecting regional energy security: supply uncertainty in the Middle East and Russia, low oil price, and use of cheap coal. In each scenario, the plausible outcomes are generated based on expert analyses. This study further proposes the following policy recommendations:
(i) Create a resilient-energy system which means that importing countries need to have diversified fuel mix, shifting from fossil fuel consumption to more renewable energy. For exporting countries, this means becoming less dependent on oil revenue for domestic economic growth.
(ii) The exporting country needs to have an earning margin, which is also fair enough to reflect affordability of importing countries.
(iii) Encouraging, implementing and accelerating the deployment of high-efficiency coal-fired power generation and other environmental technologies are key to use resource effectively and held abate carbon dioxide emissions, and thus contributing to energy security.

Full Report







List of Figures

List of Abbreviations

List of Project Member

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. History of Energy Security in the Region

Chapter 3. Future Threat on Energy Security

Chapter 4. Major Findings and Policy Implications

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