Policy Brief
No.2012-03
Posted: May 2012
Toward a Consolidated Preferential Tariff Structure in East Asia: Going beyond ASEAN+1 FTAs
Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Arata Kuno
ASEAN countries are discussing a possible template for trade in goods chapter of so-called ASEAN++ FTA (also known as RCEP). Analyses of tariff structures under the current ASEAN+1 FTAs give insights on possible approaches as well as challenges in this discussion. To meet 90% or 95% tariff elimination thresholds, both ASEAN countries and their FTA partners should make further efforts. When a “common concession” approach, which we advocate in this paper, is applied, the challenge becomes even larger as member countries should focus their policy discretion on a more limited number of sensitive products. These challenges, on the other hand, mean room for additional gains for potential users of the new agreement despite the existence of ASEAN+1 FTAs.
Policy Brief
No.2012-02
Posted: March 2012
Liberalization of Trade in Services: Toward a Harmonized ASEAN++ FTA
Hikari Ishido & Yoshifumi Fukunaga
The East Asian countries are seriously discussing the consolidation of ASEAN+1 FTAs2 to develop so-called ASEAN++ FTA or RCEP3. The detailed analysis of services chapters in the existing ASEAN+1 FTAs gives insights to services trade liberalization in this new trade agreement. In order for ASEAN and its FTA partners to gain substantial new commitments that are genuinely “plus” to the existing trade pacts, both WTO GATS and ASEAN+1 FTAs, ASEAN++ countries should aim at an ambitious level of liberalization much higher than the AFAS package 5. Also, the detailed analysis suggests a policy option of narrowing the types of services trade limitations, i.e., focusing on three types of limitations and hence improving transparency. Furthermore, we advocate for the needs of prioritizing production-related services sectors in the negotiation. Beyond ASEAN++ FTA, we briefly explain the critical roles of domestic regulatory reform.
Policy Brief
No.2012-01
Posted: January 2012
ASEAN in the Global Economy– An Enhanced Economic and Political Role
Anita Prakash & Ikumo Isono
Established in 1967, ASEAN has travelled a long way from a group of five nations to a thriving and leading group of ten countries. Based on the progress in the implementation of the blueprints for building the ASEAN community by 2015, there is an enhanced role for the ASEAN in dealing with regional and global challenges. It is emerging as a services hub in the region and is the chosen destination for investments.
At the end of Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN, which had set the theme ‘ASEAN in a global community of nations’, it is imperative to take a stock of the readiness of the region if it is well on its way to step into a truly global role in the near future, especially by its goal of becoming one community by 2015. With its strategic location, abundant natural resources, quality human resources and growing economies, ASEAN has engaged economically, by way of trade and investments, with all the large economies of the world. It has also gained strategic weight and drawn the attention of global players, both economically and politically. Its global engagement is best exemplified by the fact that 55 countries across the globe have appointed their envoys to the regional grouping and this number is growing.
Sitting in the midst of giant economies like Japan, China and India, and with active economic relations with USA and the EU, ASEAN is now seeking its due share in the global economy and politics. This Policy Brief looks into the current global profile of ASEAN and brings out policy recommendations that would help ASEAN in finding its appropriate role in the global politics and economy.
Policy Brief
No.2011-04
Posted: December 2011
The Economic Consequences of Shifting Away From Nuclear Energy
Ken Itakura
In the aftermath of the devastating nuclear fallout in Japan, there has been a harsh debate surrounding the role of nuclear energy in electricity generation. A changing role will have economic consequences on production, consumption, and international trade. To quantity these effects, we implemented simulations with a global CGE model and database. The simulation results show that reductions in the use of nuclear for electric power generation may have profound negative impacts on the Japanese economy. A nuclear accident at the Fukushima power plant changed the future direction of Japanese energy policy as well as Asian energy policy. These policies are integrated via technological, financial, and nuclear energy knowledge sharing activities within the region. The main objective of this policy brief is to shed some light on the following question: what would be the economic consequences of altering the source of power generation from nuclear to fossil fuels? This Japanese case study offers policy implications for both Japan and the region as a whole.
Policy Brief
No.2011-03
Posted: August 2011
Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake:
Geographical Simulation Analysis
Ikumo Isono and Fukunari Kimura
Japan is now struggling for a recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011. Although trunk logistic infrastructure has quickly been restored, some local infrastructure is likely to take a longer time to re-establish. The theory of new economic geography suggests that temporary interruption of infrastructure services may generate long-term negative effects on the Tohoku region and Japan as a whole because some of the economic activities may move away. We argue that strengthening links with East Asia is a key supplementary policy for achieving a full economic recovery. Our Geographical Simulation Model assesses economic effects of several policy scenarios.
Policy Brief
No. 2011-02Kensuke Tanaka
China's rebound happened relatively quickly owing to a large extent to timely macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis. Lagging somewhat behind China, most Southeast Asian countries have now entered the transition from recession to recovery. Some export-dependent Southeast Asian countries shifted their export destination to China to benefit from its early recovery. This switch of export destination to China illustrates China's important role in leading the recovery of the region. Enhancing regional macroeconomic co-operation would help reduce vulnerability of the region and ensure a sustained recovery. Regional macroeconomic co-operation remains at an early stage in Southeast Asia, but possibilities for further co-operation should be explored.
Policy Brief
No. 2011-01
Fragmentation and Changes in the Asian Trade Network
Norihiko Yamano
Bo Meng
Kiichiro Fukasaku
The Asian trade network is increasingly fragmented, resulting in higher dependence on supplies of goods and services from neighbouring countries. The update OECD Input-Output and Bilateral Trade Databases allow us to examine the recent evolution of international trade networks involving ASEAN and East Asian countries at the 2-digit industry level. Using several globalization indicators, this Policy Brief highlights major changes in the pattern of Asia's trade in intermediate goods and services since the mid-1990s. It concludes by discussing implications for Asia's regional integration.
Policy Brief
No. 2010-02
Comprehensive Asia Development Plan and Beyond
-Growth Strategies for More Prosperous and Equitable East Asia-
Takeshi Fujimoto
Shochiro Hara
Fukunari Kimura
Let’s dream of our bright and prosperous future. In the year of 2020, sixteen East Asia Summit (EAS) member countries can reach doubled per capita income compared with their income level in 2008 with proper policy guidance; eight countries may join developed countries with per capita income exceeding US$10,000, five countries could enjoy the status of newly industrialized countries with per capita income between US$3,000 and US$10,000, and three countries would have per capita income above US$1,000. The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) provides immediate policy guidance for industrialization through the development of logistics and other economic infrastructure. Beyond CADP, EAS member countries will face novel policy challenges that developing countries in the world have not broken through yet. This policy brief claims that establishing four virtuous cycles will be the key and we must have the courage to meet a number of policy challenges.
Policy Brief
No. 2010-01
Deepening East Asian Economic Integration in Services
Philippa Dee
In services markets, there may be legitimate reasons to regulate. Integration efforts should target regulatory restrictions that explicitly limit competition, and those that are intended to meet legitimate objectives, but are clearly more burdensome than need to be. In health and maritime, ASEAN is already relatively liberal by international standards, although there is still scope to promote cross-border trade and ease costly cabotage restrictions. In telecommunications, the residual foreign equity limits are hard to understand, given that past reforms and current technologies have ensured that most markets are already relatively competitive. In finance, there is substantially more to do, despite progress made during the Asian financial crisis. And in air transport, despite commitments to open skies, there is a need to further align the content of bilateral air services agreements with regional integration objectives.
Policy Brief
No.2009-06
Trade Facilitation in the ASEAN Economic Community
Christopher Findlay
Trade facilitation refers to the reduction of costs in the trading system. Significant cost reductions are possible, but policy reform and international cooperation are required to capture those gains. ASEAN has a key role to play in that work. Suggestions for the ASEAN scorecard are to reinforce or add commitments to, and then monitor the implementation of (a) National Single Windows as a prerequisite to the ASEAN Single Window, (b) a web-based databank of trade regulations that is regularly updated, (c) streamlined and harmonized procedures, starting with the Customs declaration (or ‘SAD’) form, and (d) mutually recognized technical standards. In terms of performance measures it is recommended to (1) have ASEAN customs authorities report regularly and in a comparable manner on clearance time through customs, (2) maintain and report updates of a logistics restrictiveness index for all countries in each year which has been developed in this project, and (3) recalculate adjusted cif/fob ratios as measures of trade costs, using the methodology developed in this project.
Policy Brief
No.2009-05
Is Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Worthwhile? Learning from the East Asian Experience
Dionisius Narjoko
East Asia presents a new model of industrialization that aggressively utilizes the dynamics of multinational corporations (MNCs). The model puts networks of production into practice, and such networks improve domestic capability and contribution to national output. Promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) is therefore warranted to ensure the sustainability of the production-network model. For this reason, FDI should always be promoted even when demand is less supportive, such as at this moment during the current global economic crisis.
Policy Brief
No.2009-04
Global Financial Crisis and Policy Responses in Southeast Asia : Towards Prudent Macroeconomic Policies
Friska Parulian
The global financial crisis hit the Southeast Asian economies through financial and real sectors by the combination of lower global demand and tighter credit demand effect. The challenge for policymakers in this region is not just to prevent the escalation of the crisis and to mitigate the downturn, but also to ensure a good starting position once the rebound sets in. Policymakers should avoid taking on an excessive level of debt or creating the conditions for an inflationary bubble by the current reaction to the global slowdown. A prudent counter-cyclical policy is necessary, and we should not ignore the medium and long-term sustainability.
Policy Brief
No.2009-03
A lot of Reasons Why We Should Invest More in East Asia
Fukunari KIMURA
Soji SAMIKAWA
Although the impact of financial crisis originated from North America and Europe has come to East Asia through both the financial link and the real economy link, the East Asian countries have so far largely responded to it calmly and cautiously. There are now a lot of reasons why we should invest more in East Asia not only for providing short-run stimulus but also for strengthening long-run growth basis. The introduction of market forces in infrastructure development in the form of public-private partnership (PPP) is delayed in East Asia and is thus to be promoted. However, the importance of public initiatives including official development assistance (ODA) and other official flows (OOF) must also be emphasized in recession.
Policy Brief
No.2009-02
Food Issues and Regional Cooperation in Dynamic East Asia
Fukunari KIMURA
Daisuke HIRATSUKA
Kazunari TSUKADA
How can Asia avoid another panic in international markets of our staple
crops, particularly rice?
Lessons from the last food crisis in 2006-2008.
Policy Brief
No.2009-01
Why Is the East Asia Industrial Corridor Needed？
Fukunari KIMURA
Izuru KOBAYASHI
The East Asia Industrial Corridor Project, in particular the Southern Corridor and its extension, can be a path-breaking effort for attaining both deepening economic integration and narrowing development gaps. New economic thoughts claim the necessity of comprehensive approach in which various policy modes and a number of stake holders are effectively coordinated.
