Discussion Papers

Predicting Long-Term Effects of Infrastructure Development Projects in Continental South East Asia: IDE Geographical Simulation Model

By Satoru Kumagai, Toshitaka Goken, Ikumo Isono, Souknilanh Keola

ERIA Discussion Paper 2008-02

Posted: December 2008


It is important to develop a rigorous economic geography model for predicting changes in the location of population and industries across regions in the process of economic integration. The IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) has been developed for two major objectives: (1) to determine the dynamics of locations of population and industries in East Asia in the long term, and (2) to analyze the impact of specific infrastructure of the IDE-GSM is introduced in the article and accompanied with results of test analyses on the effects of the East West Economic Corridor on regions in Continental South East Asia. Results indicate that border costs appear to play a big role in the location choice of populations and industries, often a more important role than physical infrastructures themselves.


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