Scenario Analysis is a powerful tool to assist policy making and consensus building. It helps policy makers get a clear picture of what tomorrow might bring in terms of energy security, continued economic growth, environmental sustainability and the impact of their decision making.

The 1st meeting of the ERIA Research Working Group 2014 for "Scenario Analysis of Energy Security in EAS Region" was held in Jakarta on 20 and 21 November in Jakarta. 12 members of the Working group representing 9 economies Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, Lao PRD, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Korea, and Vietnam participated in the scenario building exercise.

Energy security - the ability of the region to secure energy supplies to meet its energy needs - has become a policy imperative and thus the significance of this project, said Mr. Shimpei Yamamoto, the Managing Director of Research, ERIA in his opening remarks. Coordinated by Mr. Ichiro Kutani, the leader of the working group, latter the country experts entered into preliminary scenario building exercised that consists of three stages, namely identifying key country specific issues on energy security, clustering the issues of regional significance from the perspective of energy supply and mapping the key risk factors at global level. The implications of geo-politics, climate change, speculative markets, technology development and public finance on energy complacency were disused to arrive in as factors that will have an effect on energy security in the long-term under the two preliminary scenarios of increased oil price and cheaper coal power supply.

Dr. Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Senior Energy Economist of ERIA moderated the concluding group discussion, emphasizing the fact that cost of unilateral efforts to ensure energy security would be greater than the cost of collective efforts to achieve the same results and hence the need for including regional cooperation as a key factor in the scenario building process. The members of the working group agreed to work on the details of the two scenarios further and reconvene again in March 2015 to discuss the preliminary findings.